Project Management 101: Agile Estimation Techniques

Agile project management involves using estimation techniques to predict the time, effort, and resources needed to complete tasks or a project. Agile emphasizes adaptability and flexibility; thus, its estimation techniques are usually more streamlined and iterative than traditional waterfall project management methods. Below are some of the standard estimation techniques utilized in Agile project management.

1. Planning Poker: This technique involves the entire team, including developers, testers, and stakeholders, in estimating the size or complexity of tasks. Each team member is given cards with numbers that indicate the relative size or complexity of the task. The team then shares and discusses their estimates by selecting a card simultaneously. If there are significant differences in estimates, the team discusses their reasoning and repeats the process until a consensus is reached.
2. Relative Sizing: This technique compares the size or effort required for one task to another. The team assigns a relative size or effort value, such as story points, to each task based on its complexity, risk, and dependencies. The team can use reference stories as benchmarks for comparison to ensure consistency in their estimates.
3. T-shirt Sizing: This method involves sorting tasks or user stories into categories that correspond to the sizes of t-shirts, including XS (extra-small), S (small), M (medium), L (large), and XL (extra-large). The team collaboratively determines the size of each task by considering various factors, such as complexity, effort, and risk. T-shirt sizing is a fast and straightforward estimate method without delving into detailed breakdowns.
4. Bucket System: One way to manage tasks is to group them into categories based on their level of complexity or effort required. This involves creating different buckets, such as "small," "medium," and "large," and assigning tasks accordingly. While this technique provides a general idea of the effort required for each bucket, it may not provide detailed information.
5. Three-Point Estimation: This technique, known as "PERT" (Program Evaluation and Review Technique), considers the most optimistic, most pessimistic, and most likely estimates for a task. Each team member provides their estimate, and then a weighted average or statistical calculation is used to determine the final estimate.

When using Agile estimation techniques, it's essential to understand that the focus is on relative estimation rather than trying to determine the exact time or effort needed for a task. The goal is to establish a shared understanding among team members, promote collaboration, and provide a basis for decision-making and prioritization.

Planning Poker

Planning Poker is a helpful technique in agile project management to estimating the effort or complexity of user stories, features, or tasks. The approach involves the whole team, which includes developers, testers, and stakeholders. It is a collaborative and interactive process that helps in determining relative estimates. Here's how the Planning Poker estimation technique works:

1. Preparation: Before estimating, the product owner or scrum master compiles a list of user stories or tasks. Each user story must be easily understandable, concise, and self-contained.
2. Estimation Session: The team meets up for an estimation session, which is limited in time to ensure it is productive. Each team member participating in the session is given a deck of Planning Poker cards, which typically have numbers on them representing story points or effort levels such as 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20, 40, 100, and a "?" card.
3. Discussion: The product owner or scrum master presents a user story, providing any necessary details. The team discusses the story to ensure everyone understands its scope and requirements.
4. Individual Estimation: After the discussion, each team member privately selects a card from their deck that represents their estimation of the effort or complexity of the user story. The cards are face-down to keep the estimates hidden until everyone chooses.
5. Reveal and Discussion: After all team members have selected a card, they will reveal their choices simultaneously. If everyone agrees, the estimation for that user story will be recorded. If there are notable discrepancies in the estimates, the team will discuss to identify the reasons behind the differences.
6. Repeat and Refine: The team repeats the estimation process for each user story, refining their estimates through discussion and iteration. The process continues until all user stories have been estimated.
7. Consensus: The goal is to achieve consensus among the team members regarding each user story's estimated effort or complexity. This consensus is often reached through negotiation, discussion, and compromise.
8. Finalize Estimates: After the estimation session, the final estimates for each user story are recorded and used for project planning, prioritization, and scheduling.

The Planning Poker technique is a valuable way to estimate tasks. It involves the team working together to consider potential risks and challenges, using their collective knowledge and experience. By considering multiple perspectives, the estimation process becomes more accurate and reliable. Additionally, it promotes collaboration and shared understanding.

Relative Sizing

Agile project management uses the relative sizing estimation technique to estimate the effort needed to complete user stories, tasks, or features. This method is also called relative estimation or relative sizing. Instead of assigning numerical values, it compares items to one another, making it a quick and straightforward approach.

1. Select a baseline item: To begin, choose a user story or task representing moderate effort or complexity. This will be used as a reference point for comparison during the estimation process.
2. Define comparison factors: To estimate the size or complexity of items, consider the factors that affect them. These factors may differ for each project, but some common ones are functionality, complexity, effort, risk, and dependencies.
3. Perform pairwise comparisons: To estimate the size of different items, compare each to a baseline item using the given factors. Assess whether each item is smaller, larger, or about the same size as the baseline item for each factor. Repeat this process for all items being estimated.
4. Assign relative sizes: To assign a comparable size to each item based on comparisons, use a scale such as Fibonacci numbers (1, 2, 3, 5, 8, etc.) or T-shirt sizes (XS, S, M, L, XL). For instance, if an item is twice as complex as the baseline item, you can assign it a size of "2" or "L."
5. Validate and refine estimates: Reviewing and confirming the assigned sizes with the project team is essential. In cases with a significant difference in the assigned sizes, discussing with the team to understand their perspectives and reach a mutual agreement is recommended. The estimates can be adjusted accordingly based on the team's collective understanding.
6. Use estimates for planning and prioritization: After assigning and validating the relative sizes, they can be utilized for planning and prioritizing tasks. The team can refer to the estimates to determine the necessary capacity and effort for each iteration or sprint and prioritize the backlog according to each item's size.

Relative sizing estimation has several benefits in agile project management:

• It is quick and easy to perform, requiring less effort than other estimation techniques like hours-based estimation.
• It promotes collaborative discussions within the team, fostering a shared understanding of the work.
• It reduces the pressure to provide precise estimates, as it focuses on relative comparisons rather than specific numbers.
• It enables the team to prioritize and plan based on the relative effort or complexity of the items, helping to manage expectations and allocate resources effectively.

However, it's important to note that relative sizing is not meant to provide accurate time or effort predictions. Its primary purpose is to help the team make informed decisions regarding project prioritization, capacity planning, and resource allocation.

T-shirt Sizing

T-shirt sizing is a useful estimation technique in Agile project management that enables teams to quickly and roughly estimate the effort or size of tasks or user stories. This relative sizing technique allows teams to categorize and prioritize work without getting into precise time-based estimates or detailed breakdowns. To use the t-shirt sizing technique, follow these steps:

1. Team Collaboration: To determine t-shirt sizes, the Agile team, which includes developers, testers, product owners, and other stakeholders, must collaborate. It is crucial to have input from individuals with varied areas of expertise to ensure diverse perspectives.
2. Categorizing Sizes: The team defines a set of sizes or categories that resemble t-shirt sizes. The standard types are XS (extra-small), S (small), M (medium), L (large), and XL (extra-large). These sizes can be adjusted to fit the specific needs and complexity of the project.
3. Task Evaluation: The team evaluates each task or user story and collectively assigns a t-shirt size based on complexity, effort, and risk. The evaluation should be done considering the knowledge and expertise of the team members, as well as any historical data or reference stories available.
4. Relative Comparison: When it comes to t-shirt sizing, it's vital to compare tasks and assign a size based on the relative complexity or effort required. This means that if one task is more complex or requires more effort than another, it should be assigned a larger size. So, the team should compare tasks and make their size assignments accordingly.
5. Quick and Simple: T-shirt sizing is a fast and easy way for teams to estimate and prioritize work without spending too much time analyzing details. It gives a general idea of the effort needed for each task, which helps the team make informed decisions.
6. Further Analysis if Needed: While t-shirt sizing provides a rough estimate, it may only capture some of the details required for planning and execution. If a task is assigned a larger size, it may be necessary to break it down into smaller, more manageable sub-tasks for further analysis and estimation.

T-shirt sizing is helpful during project planning, backlog refinement or sprint planning sessions. It allows the team to prioritize work by estimating the relative effort required. This promotes collaboration and discussion among team members and provides a shared understanding of the size and complexity of tasks.

Bucket Sizing

Agile project management involves a technique called the bucket estimation method. This method is used to estimate the amount of effort required to complete a task or user story. It is a rough estimation approach that provides a high-level overview without going into too much detail.

This method categorizes tasks or user stories into different "buckets" based on their complexity or the effort required. Each bucket represents a range of effort, typically using numerical scales or descriptive labels such as small, medium, or large. Here is a step-by-step process for using the bucket estimation technique:

1. To begin, determine and rank the tasks or user stories that require estimation. These may include items from the project backlog or upcoming iteration's workload.
2. First, establish the buckets by setting the effort ranges or labels for each. One option uses a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 indicating the least effort and 5 indicating the most. Another option is to employ descriptive labels such as "quick wins," "moderate effort," and "complex."
3. As a team, review the tasks or user stories. Discuss the requirements, complexity, and other relevant factors that may impact the effort involved for each item. Make sure everyone has a clear understanding of the items being estimated.
4. Assign each task or user story to a bucket: Based on the team's discussion and consensus, allocate each item to the appropriate bucket. Consider the overall complexity, level of effort, and any uncertainties or risks associated with each item.
5. Discuss and refine the estimations: If there are disagreements or uncertainties about the bucket assignment of certain items, have open discussions and encourage team members to provide their perspectives. This collaboration helps to align the team's understanding and minimize bias.
6. Capture the estimations: Record the bucket assignments for each task or user story. You can use a physical board, a digital tool, or another preferred method to document the estimations.
7. Use the estimations for planning: The bucket estimations provide a high-level view of the effort to complete the tasks or user stories. You can leverage this information for release planning, iteration planning, or prioritization discussions.

Please remember that bucket estimation is not intended to provide an exact calculation of effort. Its purpose is to rapidly and approximately evaluate the level of complexity and effort involved, allowing the team to make informed choices and encourage conversations about work prioritization and resource allocation in an Agile project.

Summary

As you can see, whether you plan an agile project or a traditional waterfall, you have options. There is no right or wrong approach to estimations; sometimes, it is a trial and error to find the best methods that work for you and your team. There is nothing wrong with using agile and waterfall estimation techniques together in one project if this approach works the best for you.